From Adam in a comment:

Shoe, do you think there is another bubble in tech right now and when do you think it will collapse?

The bubble word trips me out a little bit… Especially when people talk about the bubble bursting. It never bursts… it just rises and falls and it happens all the time. For instance If you look at 2006 we drove over 100,000 ring tone leads. But in 2007 a lot of people got greedy and the ringtone market went to crap due to consumer mistrust by deceptive marketers. It got so bad that Google even made a special rule that NOBODY could drive traffic to mobile subscription offers. When Google took this stance it created a great opportunity for us being we actually had a free ringtone website. Our costs in Adwords went down about 85% and we collected over 200,000 new users in 2007.

The online casino industry to quite a hit which started in q4 of 2006 with the banning of Online Poker in the United States. For many people that bubble shrunk massively in size. I knew many people doing thousands a day in affiliate money who sold their sites for peanuts to big name online casino companies. Again where one side saw a shirking of the “bubble” another got a great deal on a website. When poker becomes legal to play online again (and I think it will… it will just need to be properly taxed and regulated) these sites will be worth a fortune again.

Offline in Real estate in various markets you are seeing inclining and declining prices for property. Here in Lincoln Nebraska there are 80% more houses on the market right now then at this time last year and prices are dwindling. As the real estate sellers bubble decreases in size
the buyers is increasing in size.

The stock market right now is at a all time high. I hate the stock market. People are pleased with returns like 12-15% on their money. I do not have much money in the stock market. I believe in myself much more then the market. I just do not understand putting your wealth in someone else’s hands to gamble for you. I am getting off track here but obviously the stock market is one of the best examples of how bubbles work… little bubbles all around inflating and deflating.

I think there are bubbles growing in size all around us… and at the same time some bubbles are retracting but none are popping. But new opportunities are out there every day. We just are now getting into the Mixed Martial Arts scene with fighters.com and I really feel we are getting on at the right time.

With bubbles try to keep in mind Newtons 3rd law of motion: Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. When the bubbles do deflate or pop or burst they will create enormous opportunity(s) for those that have been smart with there money and are ready to take advantage of them.

So that is my thoughts on the subject… What is yours?

P.S. Techcrunch just did a post showing numbers of Venture fundings for the last 8 years

By Jeremy Schoemaker

Jeremy "ShoeMoney" Schoemaker is the founder & CEO of ShoeMoney Media Group, and to date has sold 6 companies and done over 10 million in affiliate revenue. In 2013 Jeremy released his #1 International Best selling Autobiography titled "Nothing's Changed But My Change" - The ShoeMoney Story. You can read more about Jeremy on his wikipedia page here.

63 thoughts on “Do You Think Another Tech Bubble is coming?”
  1. I agree – when I mention to family/friends the type of online entrepreneurship I am pursing all I hear about is the “bubble burst” yet everyone of them use Google and online news. So, apparently something is working if they are still online. The “bubble” as you mentioned work…others don’t. It doesn’t mean the end of the world.

    I just think now companies (and stockholders) this time around are being a little more cautious as to not over price their stock in this still growing market.

  2. You got it right; there is no such thing as bursting of the bubble. The universal rule of life is more like Yo-Yo, things go up and they go down. Gold is another classic example. In the 1980s, people were lining up to buy gold and it was speculated to hit $2,000 per ounce but it never did. Then in the late 1990s, many governments sold their gold reserves at around $400 per ounce and gold now is hovering around $900 per ounce. The more the things change, the more they remain the same! LOL

  3. […] itsmebmill14 wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt […]

  4. I totally agree with you. this is an entropic environment. it might change the size of the “bubbles” but the total will be the same.

  5. […] Here’s another interesting post I read today by ShoeMoney® – Skills To Pay The Bills – By Jeremy Schoemaker […]

  6. Shoe, what are your thoughts on the PayPerPosting industry. Do you see any opportunities now that Google slashed PR’s and the PPP companies like Izea, Smorty use PR to value blogs?

  7. […] ShoeMoney® – Skills To Pay The Bills – By Jeremy Schoemaker wrote an interesting post today on Do You Think Another Tech Bubble is coming?Here’s a quick excerpt From Adam in a comment: Shoe, do you think there is another bubble in tech right now and when do you think it will collapse? The bubble word trips me out a little bit… Especially when people talk about the bubble bursting. It never bursts… it just rises and falls and it happens all the time. For instance If you look at 2006 we drove over 100,000 ring tone leads. But in 2007 a lot of people got greedy and the ringtone market went to crap due to consumer mistrust by deceptive marketers. It got s […]

  8. I do a lot with real estate. I think this is a great market, I get to buy at good prices. Then I get to sell at greatprices. There are natural rythms in the markets. You just have to figure out how to ride them (in any industry, econ 101 buy low sell high).

    I also think the lack of true innovation in tech and large prices might make the low end bottom out for a bit. I am also not sure if you were asking only of “tech” but the “internet” seems to be doing great for some 2.0 people. I am not sure how it will fair for others trying to make money on the side of the greats.

  9. The contrarian approach has never failed. Bubbles have been happening for thousands of years. Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is a classic read. Want to profit from Bubbles? Stay away from the herd. It nearly ALWAYS leads to profit.

    Sorry to plug something in your comments, but my friend Tom Harvey and I do a daily insight on the markets that anyone can sign up for at EconomyGuy.com It’s for anyone who wants to know what’s really going on in the markets but doesn’t want to read a financial newspaper. Oh, and it’s free.

  10. Over time an passively managed index fund tracking the stock market beats all other investments. Read “A Random Walk down Wall Street”. It’s not necessary to pay some monkey to manage your money, simply invest in a fund which tracks the stock market. Or invest in Berkshire Hathaway stock – let the world’s second richest man manage your money for you for free?

    I think if spend an hour investigating index-linked shares or check out an article such as this which may change your mind – comparing managed funds with an index tracker in plain English.

    http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/all-about-mutual-funds

    Dave

  11. I believe some bubbles do “burst” … but only with things that have little to no intrinsic value and/or whose rarity is ephemeral. For instance, tulip bulbs were a bubble that burst … more and more tulips could be grown (eliminating their rarity) and they didn’t have a lot of intrinsic value … they’re just pretty … and they die if you don’t take care of them.

    There are a lot of integrated circuit chips that were once quite expensive but which are now worthless or nearly so. The intrinsic value they once had due to their utility has been eclipsed by chips having greater capabilities, and the boards where they might have been used are no longer in production. In some other cases, the value may rebound because some item that uses them is still being used in many places despite its more or less obsolescence, and spare parts are needed.

    OTOH, gold is a metal with beauty, usefulness and rarity. It also is fairly indestructible. We know where it stands on the periodic table and we know that very little can substitute for it in various roles. It may experience bubbles from time to time, but the loss in value will be much less dramatic than what tulip bulbs experienced. Gold’s bubbles don’t “burst”, while some other bubbles do burst.

    Advances in nuclear technology some time in the future might yield an almost alchemical ability to create gold almost at will. At that point, the price of gold might decline sharply to reflect its loss of rarity. But that sort of thing is a long, long way off (assuming it ever comes).

  12. I’m also tired of the gloom and doom. Enough already with the “bubble” phrase. Ban the bubble!

  13. […] ShoeMoney® – Skills To Pay The Bills – By Jeremy Schoemaker placed an observative post today on Do You Think Another Tech Bubble is coming?Here’s a quick excerpt […]

  14. The bubble just reforms into a different shape. Gold and the markets are up and housing is down. Yahoo lays off a couple thousand people because of market shift, because of their stupidity. There will always be a movement of money, you just have to look for the opportunites where they exist.

  15. Bubbles are great, you can make money on the rise and you can make money on the fall. You can actually make a lot more on the fall than on the rise. Like in real estate, right now you can buy properties that are listed at like 75% of their value for about 75% of their list price if you are patient and smart about. When the market goes back up, you can bank. There is no such thing as a market without opportunity if you know how to play the game.

  16. I’m still seeing a lot of ringtone offers over at Google, so somebody is still making money on them.

  17. I never gave a thought to the current economic state of “the web” until I saw the valuation of Facebook at approximitely 15 billion. But you’re right, it is a market just like stocks I assume. Some sites can have a value that can fall just as sharply as they rise.

  18. Yes, the bubble is coming.

    It’s called Tech Bubble 2.0 – you can guess what type of sites will be there…. 🙂

  19. I wish I had cash to purchase real estate now. It’s down, but it will be back up in a couple of years and you’ll be able to make back that 25% then.

  20. Right now, many analysts are actually citing the tech sector as being the most undervalued in the market right now… and could provide large gains in 2008.

  21. I wrote this previously in another post, but it’s more appropriate here:

    The tech bubble of the 90s was characterized with a lot of overvalued companies that really didn’t do anything. Remember how many different ways you could buy pet food online? In this new round of tech, there are lots of companies that concentrate on adding value and they are either bought by the bigger companies, Google buying DoubleClick, or they’re growing and trying to figure out how to build more equity. There are a lot of companies in Silicon Alley right now headed by vets of the last bubble, and they are doing it right this time.

  22. i for one never think that tech will ever make a come back… Tech has been dead for a long time, there is no money in it. Techs have been saying there will be a demand for my (Insert your certification here) in the near future. I thinks thats crap, and it will never happen. Get out while you can, you will probably make more money at McDonalds then your never ending search for the right tech job.

  23. You bring up an excellent question. As other industries are being affected by the real estate market (housing starts, real estate sales, banking, construction, mortgages) why wouldn’t the tech market be affected as well?

    Consumers are not opening their wallets and purses so freely now days.

    I wondered if those that make a living online are seeing effects in their business from a slowing economy.

  24. LOL. Not Tech jobs, the economic bubble is about the tech sector. The tech sector is riding high right now with GOOG leading the way. It’s about what fast companies are creating innovating products not how awesome your JavaScript ninja skills are. there is a lot of money getting poured into tech start ups right now, most no one has heard of, but the difference this time around is they are creating value either for B2B or to the consumer.

  25. right so this tech sector jump is once again, putting blind faith into tech jobs and making people feel their education is finally going to pay off. Well its not, I think it could possible lead to the dot com crash 2.0…

  26. That’s a great point. When younger it was exciting to play the market, but what you say is very valid that having more trust in the potential of yourself is worth more than putting money in other people’s hands to gamble for you.

  27. LOL… wtf are you talk about??? there is always money being poured into tech and our US economic state is not just based on tech.

  28. I’m just waiting for the upcoming recession. It’s going to hit, and it’s going to hit hard. I’ve watched various stocks, both blue chip and tech stocks loose over 50% in the past 2 months, especially with the downturn of the mortgage industry, particularly with Countrywide posting a huge loss, and getting bought out by Bank of America. Now, there’s the trickle down affect of other industries being affected, such as consumer spending over the holdays, and how black friday didn’t really make too much of an impact.
    I love Google, alot, but I think that probably too much of the economy is tied up into mammoth companies like Google,and that when people start to recognize that amount of dependence, with a business model based primarily on advertising, that Google may be the leader in causing the bubble burst. This, of course, is just my humble OPINION, and as the saying goes, opinions are like….

  29. I think that the only bubble, in this moment, is the commodities bubble (oil, corn, copper, iron, etc). And I think it is close to a reduction.

    I don’t think that American economic will be hit by a recession. Actually, I think that the worst part for the American economic happened the last year. But, you know, big investors need the common people far from the great opportunities in a market going down and the media help them a lot! 🙂

    On the other hand, I think the Internet is raising fine with the Web 2.0 sites and probably at the end of this year we will have a new Internet bubble , but now is different to the year 2000 because the Internet market is more solid and when the reduction of the bubble comes, it will not be so dramatic.

  30. […] – Do You Think Another Tech Bubble is coming? A very interesting topic to us in this industry. It’s pretty scary. I like to hear the […]

  31. I really disagree with “blind faith into tech”. That was another characteristic of the 90s burst. Back then, if you told an investor you had a website they’d give you money. Not so anymore. VCs and other investors are far more savvy and they demand projections, market placement, forecasts, and proof that you are creating real value and equity. If there is a business that Hopes they know what they’re doing, they are not going to be in business too long. However, that doesn’t mean the tech sector is at fault. The fact companies like MSN, Google and Yahoo are buying other companies is a good sign that the sector is strong and is consolidating, and there are still start ups lead by good vets that can have a positive impact.

    If you have a tech skill then use it. But skill alone is not going to make you money or is it enough to build a business by. And there is a difference between having a tech skill (Ajax, JS, PHP) and building a business in the tech sector (Google, DoubleClick, Adserving). The two are not necessarily connected.

  32. Business is by far the best way to build wealth AND create liquid money and large ROI. Often I show an ROI of 250-300% on money spent to grow a business in one year. But last year I only made 45% in the stock market. Plus, I learned and grew with the business experiences, whereas playing the market was more about playing the graphs and companies. The lessons learned from that are less applicable to other areas of life.

  33. i also agree blind faith into tech is fools gold… I think to many companies try to base quality with technology. I have already seen many companies fail due to this reasoning. We are seeing a comeback to the web, which is going to put faith back into the web and the way web 2.0 works. Again, putting programmers to work and creating demand. However I think history will repeat itself once again, with a burst and millions of techies loosing their jobs… once again =( Which is why i say, just quit while your ahead… Dont fall into this trap.

  34. Sure, claiming that “…is dead” always generates exposure for your website and, as such, it’s a topic a lot of people take advantage of but let’s face it: in most cases, the people behind such theories are mostly interested in the buzz such a story generates and don’t actually write the article because it reflects their honest opinion.

  35. Being one step ahead is always a must, no matter what field you are involved in, and that’s something a lot of people just can’t seem to comprehend.

  36. As long as it continues to generate controversy, people will always come up with “the end of…”-type articles and the best thing to do under such circumstances is not taking them seriously.

  37. Facebook is valued at 15 billion? Are you sure about that? Isn’t it 1.5 billion?

  38. There are a ton of people that don’t really understand what bloggers and affiliate marketers do. This just shows me that there is a lot of room for the web to grow when people don’t understand the medium even after more than 20 years.

  39. Great post. I think it’s amazing that you pushed that much ringtone traffic. 😀

  40. The stock market is actually doing bad right now. The Dow is near below 12000. It was over 13000 just a month ago. The housing and credit crunch is really taking a toll on our economy.

  41. I lost thousands in the stock market in year 2001. I shifted my investment into Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds Rookie Cards…now that Bubble has burst! I’m sticking to affiliate and article marketing with my Money Never Sleeps – GangsterVideos.com blog…I can’t stand the stress of Baseball Card fluctuations! LOL…

  42. I agree with you. Investing money in my self always ends up with a better return on investment!

    MMA truly did explode last year, and it will only grow bigger this year, so I hope fighters.com does well for you.

  43. What’s up with fighters.com anyways. Is it going to be a news site or a social networking community? Or something else altogether?

    Would love to hear just a little more info about it.

  44. Anyone who asks this question wasn’t old enough to experience the boom/bust of the 90’s or didn’t pay attention to what really caused it.

  45. One of the bubbles busted with Google in October and PR dump. The rest is right on the money. Maybe you should have a weekly review on the bubble industries.

    Someone above said wish they could buy real estate now, this is the best time, you will get the right price

    2008 should be great. we shall see

    Cheers

  46. The best times to buy are post crash. CC stock are getting killed. They were too high now some are too low.

    All consolidation is, is a company doing what you could do on your own.

    Its a marathon, not a sprint

  47. You do know that just about the only politician who actually would allow online gambling is Ron Paul, right? Well, him and Barney Frank, but I doubt you like him either. I guess you could include Wayne Allen Root as well, since he has a shot at appearing on the Presidential Ballot.

    Most of these guys ( both Repubs and Dems) absolutely HATE the idea of anyone being free to do anything like gambling and other consensual “vices.”

    I know people who have testified in front of Congress on these issues and most of the Congresspeops are idiots. This whole gambling thing is more absurd than the steroid witchhunts.

    DOnt you understand we have to ban gambling “for the chiiiiiiiiiiiiiildren.” Even when presented with facts and evidence to the contrary, everything is ” Oh no, we can’t have online gambling. The chiiilllllllllllllldren will all go on there with stolen credit cards and get addicted to gambling.”

    I hope you are right, but good luck with the people we have in government.

  48. Here in Holland they have made a rule that creditcard companies must ignore payments to poker websites. Only for the official poker website Holland Casino you can go to gambling, other poker websites are illegal.

  49. i think the next down industry will be casino because web directories are already dooming. Casinos are getting all the government interventions,so they are going down

  50. Thanks Dave… I was also wondering about the fighters.com business… Thanks for sharing your research with us… I am looking forward to this Shoemoney launch. Also, if anyone has some concrete and REAL way of making money on the ‘Net and care to share, I would appreciate it. Most sites I visit turn out to be scams.

  51. “The stock market right now is at a all time high. I hate the stock market. People are pleased with returns like 12-15% on their money. I do not have much money in the stock market. I believe in myself much more then the market. I just do not understand putting your wealth in someone else’s hands to gamble for you. I am getting off track here but obviously”

    I agree with your article, except for the quote above. Its not gambling if you pick a well diversified mutual fund with a 20 year track record filled with large cap growth stocks that pay dividends! You are missing out on turning a portion of your income into a wealth accumulator.

  52. The bubble is in the commodity price, like oil and CPO. I do like stock. It’s not gambling. We just need to find good company with low price

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