Remember years ago when you had that friend who was crushing it playing Texas Holdem Poker online? I know I did. His name was Eric and he was making like $2,000 a day playing poker online. Meanwhile he was also working a day job for a measly 20k/year.
My friend Eric was the first person I know to have dual monitors on his computer. Back then they were 20″ Sony Trinitrons CRT’s that weighed like 60lbs each and they were beautiful. I should know – I was his “computer nerd” friend who set it all up for him.
I remember thinking damn he has the life. He gets to love what he does and he gets paid VERY well for it.
I really knew nothing about Texas Holdem Poker back then except that I wanted a piece of the action.
I had one missing crucial component to being good at Texas Holdem – Patience.
Instead I focused on a way to “beat the system”.
All of these online poker rooms had “watcher” modes where you could sit and watch people playing for money. There were also programs that would record the games being played and I would later analyze these.
I primarily focused on “10 man sit and go tournaments”. This is where 10 people sit down at a virtual online table and play until one person wins. The table pays out to the top 3 finishers.
I recorded these games around the clock for weeks and then analyzed my data. I stumbled across some really cool stuff. One interesting statistic was that if you did nothing but fold your cards 100% of the time you could place in the money something like an average of 20% of the time. This was because people would knock themselves out playing each other while you just sat and waited.
But this percentage drastically increased and decreased depending on time of day and events.
For instance I discovered that the percentage for folding your way into the money drastically increased if you played 1-2 hours before a major online tournament. This was because players were just killing time before the big event they were about to play in and played balls out “all ins” constantly.
So I knew that if I could write a bot that just did nothing but fold and it played 1-2 hours before a major event I could pretty much break even. But how do I now build on this and increase my profitability.
Well as far as playing cards goes there is tons of data that tells you statistically your odds of winning based on what cards you have and what cards are on the table.
Also if you are the small or big blind you could get most people to fold just by doubling the big blind bet.
So after weeks of tweaking code I built a script that would fold for me for until the table was down to 6 people then play my big blinds if everyone else called (but fold if someone raised) and also would play certain hands based on probability to win.
The script was profitable but there was one problem. I was broke. I did not have enough capital to back it. I was placing in the money a lot of the time but only making about 30$ a hour for the brief time where this was profitable.
The cool thing about it was I learned a SHITTON about Texas Holdem Poker and can play decent if I can keep focused enough (I finished 2nd in the 2007 tournament at the Venetian in Vegas).
One interesting thing about affiliate marketers is LOTS of them are poker players. At almost any event a poker game will break out eventually. Anyway I digress…
I have had many conversations lately with people about how affiliate marketing (specifically pay-per-click) is the new Texas Holdem.
Think about it for a minute.
You could take many aspects of what I said I was doing with poker years ago and apply it to what I am doing with affiliate marketing now.
Record Data
Analyze data
Make betting decisions based on stats
Build tools to improve profitability
The weird thing now is that I am the guy people know and tell stories about.
September 8, 2009 at 9:08 am
Great post! Thank you for sharing the thing that’s really important. Testing & Tracking is the key for affiliate marketing.
September 8, 2009 at 9:20 am
I actually made about 80k from 2006-2008 playing online sit n go tournaments.
LOL at 92%. Either you’re exaggerating or you were extraordinarily lucky. Or your sample size was extraordinarily small.
I can definitely see the parallels between poker and marketing though.
September 8, 2009 at 10:17 am
Re:92% you have to remember it was only good for 1 hour… so maybe could get in only 40 games a month TOTAL and it was very highly targeted.
September 8, 2009 at 10:57 am
That was simple calculation but showing worth of experience …
You are sharp like blade …
September 8, 2009 at 5:08 pm
yeah he’s really an intelligent guy
September 8, 2009 at 9:21 am
You can definitely draw many comparisons between the two – in fact, if you look at it closely you only hit the tip of the iceberg. Great post!
September 8, 2009 at 9:40 am
I schooled a bunch of aff marketers at Affiliate Summit Vegas. True story.
September 8, 2009 at 9:47 am
Well it is surprising to know Shoe money does not have the patience to sit around and make money. One thing I want to know is whether the bot you created is legal in a poker Game. I dont play the Game..
September 8, 2009 at 10:16 am
I am pretty sure its not legal.
September 8, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Very not legal..
But interestingly enough one of very few poker bots that didn’t loose more then it won.
Something not many people have managed to make at all. But as you said, it was kinda limited in time and profitability. Cool stuff anyways!
September 8, 2009 at 10:01 am
You’re exactly right. PPC has always felt like gambling – you place your bet (I mean bid) and soon you’ll discover you’re either going to be cashing in or running home crying. It’s always great to hear a success story.
September 9, 2009 at 8:35 am
That is right said. Exactly like poker which can turn you into a pauper over night, PPC too can do it overnight.
When I was just starting off in IM, I was so super excited that I created an account at Adwords and launched a campaign with some basic keywords that were damn competitive not knowing what the outcome would be. When I woke up in the morning, I had lost all my savings for 7 months.
That makes a comparison.
September 8, 2009 at 10:34 am
Record Data
Analyze data
Make betting decisions based on stats
Build tools to improve profitability
These are great tips to use for any business.
September 8, 2009 at 10:47 am
lol – that’s just insane $2,000/day ?!?
What stakes did he play for?
What bankroll did he have?
September 8, 2009 at 11:57 am
I honestly have no idea… I dont even know what his margins were. It was like 9 years ago
September 8, 2009 at 12:12 pm
You had a lot of time to kill to discover all these things about online poker and take advantage of them.
September 8, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Man that is right on! I never looked at it this way, but you are right. I like how you keep it real.
September 8, 2009 at 1:11 pm
True, I am thinking about registering online every time I see my brother play, but I think I’d waste so much time for a fraction of what I can make from ppc.
I think I’d rather play pcc holdem for now… 
September 8, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Wooooooow what a comparo.
September 8, 2009 at 3:32 pm
oh now that is funny.. look at you, you look like a bad ass too
nice.
September 8, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Poker kills, almost as much as this wonderful comparison. Good work, Shoe!
September 8, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Yeah atlast poker kills, I mean you can’t win everything
September 9, 2009 at 8:31 am
“Poker Kills” is a very worthy statement. But Internet Marketing doesn’t. For sure.
September 8, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Fantastic post! I’m a poker and Internet freak too and I an definitely relate to this!
September 8, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Relating poker with internet marketing looked weird in start but at Shoe really given some solid justification.
September 8, 2009 at 5:36 pm
great post! I suck at poker and affilitate marketing haha
September 8, 2009 at 10:10 pm
If you suck at poker, doesn’t mean you have to suck at affiliate marketing, right…?
September 9, 2009 at 6:42 am
That was my question too! LOL! I am an adept chess player myself, Poker is not really my thing.
September 8, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Coll comparison..
I played a lot of poker a couple of years ago. You are very right. Test, make notes, refine your strategy and build a step-by-step strategy for the different parts of the game.
The same is true for SitnGo’s, bigger tournaments and, by all means, IM and products launches as well. It’s always good if you can follow someones already true, tested step-by-step battle plan.
September 8, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Love the comparison.
Another parallel between poker & internet marketing = most anybody can make it be a profitable venture, if they give it enough time and put in the blood, sweat & tears. Neither is a get rich quick scheme.
September 8, 2009 at 8:19 pm
personally, I don’t like gambling at all and now I hate playing poker game. I think that I have played enough and I don’t want to play it any more. If say Internet marketing is a kind of gambling, maybe it is, but I don’t hate it
.
September 9, 2009 at 1:55 am
Internet marketing cannot be a gambling at all. It requires calculated analysis and thought-after decisions. You just don’t go by your gut-feel to earn millions on the internet, right. If that was the case then Jeremy would never have been a success.
September 9, 2009 at 2:02 am
Right! Using internet marketing strategies to get $$$$ numbers is not all that difficult, but you need a system that has many components all put together in the exactly right way to make sense.
September 8, 2009 at 10:07 pm
And just like Texas Hold’em, PPC could make you lose big time if you don’t do them properly. Great post Shoe.
September 8, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Cool and interesting comparison. I thought playing poker is a waste of time. but now I want to try a hand in that. Great post.
September 9, 2009 at 1:49 am
That is a nice interpretation of the bottomline of the post.
September 9, 2009 at 12:00 am
Note sure how folding a lot makes you a winner online in PPC, but I’ll trust you on this one.
September 9, 2009 at 1:44 am
These were very typical tips that I had not read anywhere. The comparison between poker games and affiliate marketing was excellent. When you used the term “bet” in context of affiliate marketing, I felt that it gave affiliate marketing a smell of a gamble. But I feel that affiliate marketing is not a gamble in any way, rather it is sheer hard work and thought-after decisions.
September 9, 2009 at 1:52 am
Most people who play Texas hold’em want to get better at it. Even those who play Texas holdem online purely for recreation usually have more fun if they are winning. While becoming a Texas hold’em master will take some hard work and innate talent,
September 9, 2009 at 1:57 am
you have made good analysis & logical comparison shoe….
September 9, 2009 at 4:27 am
Play nice Shazz… Gaming is the fastest growing affiliate program today. I guess you already have your bet on it.
September 9, 2009 at 4:30 am
I don`t like to play poker
September 9, 2009 at 6:39 am
Well thought out and written post. I like the comparison you make between Internet Marketing and Poker, with the comment that most Internet Marketers are also Poker players indicating that there is definitely a lot in common between the two.
September 9, 2009 at 7:10 am
i have a question. what if your using your bot and you have a good card do you still let your bot fold??
anyway you have a very good comparison of poker with marketing online.
September 9, 2009 at 12:18 pm
strange, huh ? how roles are changing…
September 9, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Cool post, brotha – definitely a good way to think of “the game.”
Paul
September 9, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Boy you are looking great in this pic but however choice of your shirt colour is like you are seating in some corporate office.
September 9, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Glad to see that I’m in the picture… although you cannot see my head.
September 9, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Playing Casino, Poker is one of my hobby before..
I used to play this but I am not into playing it online. Cos its much better and that’s the only way I could save time and expenses.
September 9, 2009 at 10:38 pm
Nice info, the key for affiliate marketing is testing and tracking.
September 21, 2009 at 10:50 am
Testing and Tracking but you have to actually get started 1st. Most people fail because they never actually get started.
September 10, 2009 at 5:36 am
Internet Marketing is The New Texas Holdem is not only for showmoney but also for me and all the readers of this blog if read it carefully.
September 11, 2009 at 4:24 am
It is about a long term plan and patience is definitely key.
September 11, 2009 at 10:14 am
IMO the main reason you came in second in the 2007 Poker Tourney was because of your Lasik surgery. If you would’ve been on your game, you wouldn’t have folded as many hands as you did when we were heads-up, and basically given me the win.
Also, I remember someone trying to sneak a peek at your hand which shall we say “annoyed” you, and being the beneficiary of that annoyance. (I swear I didn’t plant them!)
Good luck this year; you know I’ll be there. Here’s to a rematch.
Dan
September 11, 2009 at 10:55 am
I have a site http://mountainbikehelmet.org, that sell bike helmet. After changing the template, the conversion rate increase 100%, then I know how important is the web page design.
September 12, 2009 at 11:27 pm
I was thinking similar thoughts just the other day. I used to play poker online heaps and at the casino and what not. I probably made a few bucks but spend hours and hours playing poker and not gaining any experience I can use for where I wanted to go in life.
That for me is why I’ve quit playing poker now and focusing on online marketing with that time instead. Even if I don’t make a cent with online marketing (which I don’t believe for a second) I am going to be gaining the skills that I can use to get myself a (quick look away now) corporate job if I need to go down that route.
There is too much luck involved and small margin and frustration in poker.
September 15, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Very interesting post, thanks lots.
September 17, 2009 at 9:24 am
Great post! Good information. Seems like you really put in some time doing the research!
September 26, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Interesting concepts. You make the implementation sound so simple but I am guessing that it was very complex. Did you need to create a vision system that could “see” the cards on the screen or is there some sort of API that these online game companies provide?