Feb 2 2008

UFC 81 - Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir

By Jeremy Schoemaker 48 comments

UFC 81 is going to be awesome! This is a really good card. Not only 2 interesting heavyweight match ups but a pretty stacked under card.

Jeremy Horn vs Nate Marquardt:

Just a few weeks ago it was announced that Jeremy Horn was going to fight Nate Marquardt. This is pretty cool for me because I went to high school with Jeremy Horn. I never really knew him but it is cool we are both from Moline, IL. Anyway Jeremy suffered many vicious knockouts before he was 30 and I never thought I would see him fight in a main UFC event again. His record is 79-16-5 and he is just 32 years old. Jeremy went the distance with Anderson Silva (current middleweight champ) a couple years ago and lost a close split decision. (Fight on Youtube) Overall I think this is a pretty good match up. Nate Marquardt is a very good fighter and in his prime. Personally I would rank Nate top 5 in the middleweight division. I do not think he is that good… I just think the division is super weak right now. Jeremy is currently a +185 underdog. (you win 185 for each 100). I put 50 on Jeremy Horn to win this fight. I think its a fair bet even though I would not touch this fight without the hometown connection.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia:

This is a interesting match up. “Minotauro” Nogueira is one of the Pride Championships best heavyweights ever… with wins over Josh Barnett, Fabricio Werdum, Mirko Fillipovic and Dan Henderson. Nogueira also has always had great cardio and really good stand up for a heavyweight. Then on the other side you have Tim Sylvia. Tim is the guy everyone loves to hate. But one thing you can’t argue with is his results. Even though he is incredibly boring and comes off like a jackass the guy is skilled. If Tim can keep control of the fight and do his trademark - “put the guy against the fence and lean on him” all night I see Tim Sylvia winning by decision. That is how I see this fight going down. Tim Siliva is the under dog in this fight and I am putting $150.00 on him to win. At the time I placed the bet (as you can see below) I got +150 on Tim Sylvia being he is the underdog that should pay pretty well. I am confident in this bet. The line on this is now @ +130 which means late money is going my way. I have a 20 point advantage then the current spread.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir:

I am super excited for this fight. Is Lesnar for real? I think he is. I have talked to my neighbor and all american wrestler Brad Alderman who was at championship events where Lesnar was also competeting. I also talked to Lesnars personal trainer and his camp and they all say he has been a freaking machine. On the flip side I am hearing really bad things out of Frank Mir’s camp. People closest to him that I know are saying Frank is just doing this fight for the money and knows he does not really have a change to win.

I think this is one of the biggest locks of the year. I do not want to encourage anyone to ever bet on MMA (I do it for entertainment only) but if I did this would be my 5 star lock pick of the year.

Also consider that the UFC just signed Lesnar to a pretty massive contract and I do not think it is any coincidence he is fighting on the same card as the heavyweight title fight. That means he will be on the same fighting pace as the heavyweight belt….. which I expect him to get a title shot in q4 and become champion of this year. I can tell you Dana White has never been more excited for a fighter in the UFC and there is NO WAY IN HELL he would match him up against someone he thought he would lose to.

I bet the maximum allowed by bodog on Brock Lesnar when it was at -140 ($500). Then last night Bodog let you bet up to 750 but the line moved to -150 and I bet 250 more. Now the line is at -175 which means I got in really good at -140. I will continue to put more money on Lesnar if they increase the stakes until it gets to -200

Here are my 2 initial bets earlier this week:

I kind of went nuts since and and bet a lot more. I have a decent chunk at risk on tonights event. Here are the total bets:

I have a few foolish longshot bets but I should pickup atleast $800 in tonights event. I started betting on MMA last August (after an initial 150$ deposit) and have managed to turn that into $1400.

RacerX said on February 2nd, 2008 at 2:55 am

Man…I wish they could get some big guys to take MMA on

[Reply]
Dom said on February 2nd, 2008 at 3:53 am

Nice one Jeremy, I can’t wait to get in to MMA!

Would you say you’ve managed to do so well betting on it because you’ve been watching it a long time and “know” the players or do you do a lot of research?

Dom

[Reply]
Melvin said on February 2nd, 2008 at 4:46 am

I know Brock is for real… Lets just see how he will adjusts to the UFC community

[Reply]
Popular Wealth said on February 2nd, 2008 at 5:01 am

Shoe, you might want to revise the line “ShoeMoney does NOT have adult content and is work safe.” on your ADToll page - and let us know if you get Google slapped too, especially after disclosing how to game adwords a couple days ago.
Other than eventual blog serps suicide, great post

[Reply]
domprofesor said on February 2nd, 2008 at 6:06 am

Lesnar RULZ !!!

[Reply]
Start Blogging said on February 2nd, 2008 at 7:11 am

Good luck and congrats on your current betting earnings!

[Reply]
Search◆ Engines WEB said on February 2nd, 2008 at 7:59 am

This should be banned. It is sick! There is no other word for people maiming each other psychotic animals.
.
What is even sadder is people enjoying this bullshit. You should be ashamed of yourselves - and should really take a close look on why you like this
.

Good health and a fit mind is nothing to take for granted - one day you will lose it

[Reply]
Affiliate Confession said on February 2nd, 2008 at 8:03 am

That’s one scary lookin dude.

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Simlock verwijderen said on February 2nd, 2008 at 8:05 am

Yes, that dude scares my. If I might fight him, he would make bratwurst of my. But nice that you are making good money with betting. I don’t like betting, becuase it is addictable, especially when you make much money, then you want more and more.

[Reply]
Gary said on February 2nd, 2008 at 8:27 am

I’ve waited a long time for this card, it’s completely stacked. Gonna be a fun night

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Nascar said on February 2nd, 2008 at 8:43 am

Lesner is the real deal. It is a much better bet than the super bowl this sunday.

[Reply]
Money Never Sleeps said on February 2nd, 2008 at 8:44 am

$500 bucks on Brock seems to be a good investment!
Good luck Shoe!

[Reply]
Zakano said on February 2nd, 2008 at 8:58 am

I can see your points on both Lesnar and Sylvia winning but I’m preying for the opposite. Mir looks up for this fight and Nog is million times more exciting to watch than Silva. Real coin-toss fights. I’d love to see Horn finally make a name for himself in the UFC but I think they’re just trying to re-build Marquardt, hopefully Horn will throw a monkey-wrench in the UFC’s plans.

[Reply]
Video Blog said on February 2nd, 2008 at 9:18 am

I dont normally put money on the fights, just enjoy watching them, but Lesnar is looking so good for tonight. Mir lost his magic after the accident and hasn’t been the same since. Tonight he gets crushed

[Reply]
Making The Money said on February 2nd, 2008 at 10:27 am

I always thought that Brock was just some puffed up WWE tart, I can’t wait to find out how he gets on in a real fight!

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Tyler Dewitt said on February 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am

I haven’t watched any UFC shows for awhile. I know it has changed a lot sine the last 10 years it use to be anything was aloud now there putting rules on everything, but reguardless they still have great fights.

[Reply]
Ruck said on February 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 am

The guy looks like a freaking ManBeast. He does actually eats small children for breakfast so I am betting on that he rips Frank’s head off and hits some inoccent fan with it.

[Reply]
JeffMull said on February 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am

Interesting note to the Lesnar fight. I saw on SPIKE the other night that Lesnar lost a major wrestling match to Stehen Neal. What they failed to mention is that this is the same Stephen Neal who is playing in the SuperBowl tomorrow for the Patriots.

[Reply]
Mastermind said on February 2nd, 2008 at 1:08 pm

Brock all the way!!!!

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CatherineL said on February 2nd, 2008 at 3:04 pm

Yuk - that is gross. I’m sorry Shoe - but the guy doesn’t even look natural. How could anyone put in so much energy trying to make themselves look like that?

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mmaninja said on February 2nd, 2008 at 3:07 pm

Good picks there Shoemoney, except for the Sylvia pick, but at least it’ll pay off good if it happens. Sylvia is just plain lame

So many people don’t realize that Lesnar is a NCAA Division I champion and only elite athletes with some serious wrestling skill achieve that. While he’s officially still uproven in MMA, he has a wealth of competition experience.

And good point that UFC, hopefully, are making a long term bet on him and are only building up Frank Mir’s hype to make him look a little better as legitimate competition.

Looks like you’re going to win some bucks on this one.

[Reply]
mmaninja said on February 2nd, 2008 at 3:21 pm

good picks, except for Sylvia

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Tim said on February 2nd, 2008 at 5:58 pm

Lesnar = animal. Did you see that guy’s training video? Hard work followed up by a burger, fries, and beer. He looks a bit roided out but this should be a good one. Sometimes big dudes like that aren’t always the best fighters.

[Reply]
oakling said on February 2nd, 2008 at 7:05 pm

Can’t wait to see how you do, Shoestradamus Good luck!

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Jon said on February 2nd, 2008 at 7:08 pm

I used to see Brock Lesnar at this little breakfast spot in Medina, MN just about every morning a couple of years ago. He is not as tall at I thought he would be. But that man is built like a sherman tank. Was very friendly with the locals. Seemed like a pretty cool guy.

[Reply]
Niro said on February 2nd, 2008 at 9:23 pm

Hmmm well I hate betting I guess.. Any way very good luck to all of you..

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Mike 11|15 Media said on February 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 pm

And Lesnar taps out in 90 seconds! How much did you lose all together Shoe?

[Reply]
browie said on February 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 pm

OUCH!

Shoe lost his 2 big bets.

[Reply]
VaBeachKevin said on February 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 pm

Ouch is right.

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LOL said on February 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 am

Lesnar Mir video here: http://www.mmatko.com/brock-lesnar-vs-frank-mir-fight-video-ufc-81/

As a fellow MN, hate to see the loss, but Mir did what he does well.

[Reply]
Maling said on February 3rd, 2008 at 12:26 am

Show me the money!!!! Mir won!!!! WAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA!!!!

[Reply]
Maling said on February 3rd, 2008 at 12:28 am

show me the money!!! Mir won!!!!

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Brock Lesnar Tapped Out in 90 said on February 3rd, 2008 at 12:39 am

“5 star lock pick of the year”?

[Reply]
lurkster said on February 3rd, 2008 at 12:40 am

Ouch, doesn’t look too good on the wagers. I was pulling for Lesnar, but couldn’t bring myself to bet on him.

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UFC fan said on February 3rd, 2008 at 1:34 am

So, your prediction, your “lock” was that Frank Mir was washed up, and had no chance, huh?

Well, I guess we know now exactly how much crap you talk, and how pointless this idiotic blog is.

As predicted by people that actually know something about MMA, Lesnar got submitted by Mir’s superior Jiu Jitsu skill…..the only surprise was that it was a relatively benign hold…not nearly as painful or dangerous as some other BJJ holds…and Lesnar STILL tapped out. So, apparently, we now know something ELSE about Brock Lesnar: He has no pain tolerance. None. At all. He’s a big, puffy, musclebound sissy. Also? Now every other UFC fighter knows the same thing about Lesnar. You can expect to see him tapping due to joint submissions from this day forward…unless he quits UFC.

[Reply]
Allen said on February 3rd, 2008 at 2:17 am

YOU SHOULD WRESTLE SHOE BECAUSE I THINK YOU CAN TAKE ALL THEM UFC CHAMPIONS

[Reply]
RacerX said on February 3rd, 2008 at 2:35 am

You certainly cannot say that Mir can’t take a punch…ouch

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RacerX said on February 3rd, 2008 at 3:26 am

Catherine, I read your blog every day…are you sure you never did a post about a super-muscle guy with asword tattoo on his chest???

[Reply]
CatherineL said on February 3rd, 2008 at 4:02 am

Hi RacerX - I didn’t - but some commentor on my blog seems to think I did!

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blaine said on February 3rd, 2008 at 4:45 am

you don’t know shit about fighting do you?

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Making The Money said on February 3rd, 2008 at 5:51 am

Yep, I go with my original assumption, all muscle no fight. How much of your $1400 have you got left Shoe?

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Making The Money said on February 3rd, 2008 at 5:59 am

Just watched it back again, maybe I was a bit harsh. All muscle no technique would have been a better summary.

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austin said on February 3rd, 2008 at 7:25 am

lesnars the best!

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sknydave said on February 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am

wow you bet $500 on Lesnar? That’s insane. He’s shown nothing. I also wouldn’t have bet against Nogueira considering he’s made an entire career out of getting beat up by a bigger man then submitting them.

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mmaninja said on February 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 am

comeon people. Mir got pounded pretty good, Lesnar just got caught. If they ever fight again, Lesnar won’t get caught

[Reply]
Will said on February 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 am

betting on fights makes watching so much better. O_O

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