UFC 81 is going to be awesome! This is a really good card. Not only 2 interesting heavyweight match ups but a pretty stacked under card.
Jeremy Horn vs Nate Marquardt:
Just a few weeks ago it was announced that Jeremy Horn was going to fight Nate Marquardt. This is pretty cool for me because I went to high school with Jeremy Horn. I never really knew him but it is cool we are both from Moline, IL. Anyway Jeremy suffered many vicious knockouts before he was 30 and I never thought I would see him fight in a main UFC event again. His record is 79-16-5 and he is just 32 years old. Jeremy went the distance with Anderson Silva (current middleweight champ) a couple years ago and lost a close split decision. (Fight on Youtube) Overall I think this is a pretty good match up. Nate Marquardt is a very good fighter and in his prime. Personally I would rank Nate top 5 in the middleweight division. I do not think he is that good… I just think the division is super weak right now. Jeremy is currently a +185 underdog. (you win 185 for each 100). I put 50 on Jeremy Horn to win this fight. I think its a fair bet even though I would not touch this fight without the hometown connection.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia:
This is a interesting match up. “Minotauro” Nogueira is one of the Pride Championships best heavyweights ever… with wins over Josh Barnett, Fabricio Werdum, Mirko Fillipovic and Dan Henderson. Nogueira also has always had great cardio and really good stand up for a heavyweight. Then on the other side you have Tim Sylvia. Tim is the guy everyone loves to hate. But one thing you can’t argue with is his results. Even though he is incredibly boring and comes off like a jackass the guy is skilled. If Tim can keep control of the fight and do his trademark – “put the guy against the fence and lean on him” all night I see Tim Sylvia winning by decision. That is how I see this fight going down. Tim Siliva is the under dog in this fight and I am putting $150.00 on him to win. At the time I placed the bet (as you can see below) I got +150 on Tim Sylvia being he is the underdog that should pay pretty well. I am confident in this bet. The line on this is now @ +130 which means late money is going my way. I have a 20 point advantage then the current spread.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir:
I am super excited for this fight. Is Lesnar for real? I think he is. I have talked to my neighbor and all american wrestler Brad Alderman who was at championship events where Lesnar was also competeting. I also talked to Lesnars personal trainer and his camp and they all say he has been a freaking machine. On the flip side I am hearing really bad things out of Frank Mir’s camp. People closest to him that I know are saying Frank is just doing this fight for the money and knows he does not really have a change to win.
I think this is one of the biggest locks of the year. I do not want to encourage anyone to ever bet on MMA (I do it for entertainment only) but if I did this would be my 5 star lock pick of the year.
Also consider that the UFC just signed Lesnar to a pretty massive contract and I do not think it is any coincidence he is fighting on the same card as the heavyweight title fight. That means he will be on the same fighting pace as the heavyweight belt….. which I expect him to get a title shot in q4 and become champion of this year. I can tell you Dana White has never been more excited for a fighter in the UFC and there is NO WAY IN HELL he would match him up against someone he thought he would lose to.
I bet the maximum allowed by bodog on Brock Lesnar when it was at -140 ($500). Then last night Bodog let you bet up to 750 but the line moved to -150 and I bet 250 more. Now the line is at -175 which means I got in really good at -140. I will continue to put more money on Lesnar if they increase the stakes until it gets to -200
Here are my 2 initial bets earlier this week:
I kind of went nuts since and and bet a lot more. I have a decent chunk at risk on tonights event. Here are the total bets:
I have a few foolish longshot bets but I should pickup atleast $800 in tonights event. I started betting on MMA last August (after an initial 150$ deposit) and have managed to turn that into $1400.