Big Week For Tech Stocks

41 responses..

I will be the first to tell you I dunno crap about the stock market. I am always interested in companies earnings though and this week we will hear 4th quarter earnings from Amazon, Google, and Yahoo.

Yahoo is up today, then Amazon will be on weds (jan 30th), and Google will be on the 31st.

Shoemoney’s idiot stock market predictions - Lets see how a stock market idiots does.

Yahoo! -

Yahoo tomorrow will announce a disappointing 4th quarter but will save some face with the announcement of 1000-1500 layoffs. The stock is currently at 20.78 per share. I predict by the end of this week Yahoo! stock will go down (but not that much). Perhaps 5% or so. Even in as bad a shape as Yahoo! is in they could have a tremendous upside if they trim the fat and “focus on the profitable projects” (shoemoney slogan). Yahoo! still has market share in countries like Japan and I really think they have a strong upside… but a few more disappointing quarters and we could be looking at 4$ YHOO stock again like 2001.

Disclosure - I own Yahoo! stock

Amazon -

Amazon had the best holiday season yet :

Amazon.com is walking tall after reporting its best holiday season ever.

And the Nintendo Wii was flying faster than Santa off the virtual shelves, at a rate of 17 per second, the company announced yesterday.

The Web store’s busiest day was Dec. 10, when customers ordered 5.4 million items - 62.5 per second.

Amazon stock has been falling (down %20) since the first of the year (when it was almost 100$ a share). I think its still a little overpriced at 75.82 (current) and even though they will announce a monster 4th quarter the stock will still be around 75$ end of week.

Full Disclosure - I do not own amazon stock

Google -

I think Google will meet 4th quarter expectations and the stock will rise a bit to 600 by the end of the week. Its currently at 555.98 per share. Google was just approved that in can bid in US wireless auctionads and I look to see them make a serious run for the new 700mhz spectrum. Interestingly enough Microsoft is also approved to bid on the new spectrum.

Full Disclosure - I own Google Stock

So what is your predictions ?




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  • posted on January 29th, 2008:
    Written By: ShoeMoney

    Links To This Post :

    1. Shoemoney Predicts Yahoo Stock Decline | Robert Gremillion’s Blog




    41 Comments

    @January 29, 2008 8:42 am
    James Says:

    So what ARE your predictions?

     
    @January 29, 2008 8:53 am
    Blackbeard Says:

    Tech stocks will be coming back primarily because they were punished so severely over the last two weeks of market downturns. A lot of the downturn had nothing to do with the tech sector at all. Most of it is banking/lending/home mortgage companies who made a lot of bad decisions the last 5 years by financing a housing bubble. Unfortounately, since those companies loan money out to everybody, the whole market ends up looking softer than it really is. Now people are buying tech stocks while they’re cheap again and then they’ll go back up until there is more bad news. Last week Intel was at like $18. Now they’re back over $20. There’s plenty of money to be made and lost in the tech sector due to the high volatility all around the market. Invest at your own risk.

     
    @January 29, 2008 9:00 am

    Uncle Ben needs to drop the target rate by 50 points this week and the bond market needs to tank so I can afford the house I’m trying to buy.

    This isn’t a prediction, just a hope since mortgage rates shot up over a 1/2 a point since the end of a last week.

     
    @January 29, 2008 9:10 am

    Stocks are a great way to increase money, but like most say, it can be unpredicatable meaning that you can also lose a lot of money in the process…

    @January 29, 2008 10:02 am
    Will Says:

    well making money online isn’t that stable either.

     
     
    @January 29, 2008 9:11 am
    carl Says:

    I will be interested to see if Google’s smaller click area on ads affect their earnings from advertising. I think that Adsense makes about 40% of their earnings. The publishers that I know have had an earnings drop since they changed the click area so I am guessing that has to affect G’s earnings. I think it was Mashable that had a post guessing that this is why they lowered their referral commissions.

     
    @January 29, 2008 9:52 am
    WhipDaddy Says:

    This is definitely not the time to be buying stocks in the TECH sector especially in the event of that famous R word that keeps poking its head into every news piece out there. Any gains TECH stocks have made in the last couple weeks are only temporary due to the flow of quick money flowing in when they drop hard like they recently did. It is not a true recovery because these hedge funds buy in when they dip which push the stock back up into a ‘faux recovery’.
    The TECH sector has just started to feel the pain of this slowing economy and a possible RRRRRRecession regardless of its duration and strength is going to continue to bring the pain to this sector which only flourishes when economies are strong.

    My predictions
    GOOG will drop regardless of their earnings which I don’t think will be stellar.
    AAPL will also continue to dip probably resting at $115 for the next little while, I will probably buy back into AAPL at $100 mark.

     
    @January 29, 2008 10:01 am
    Will Says:

    man i really hope yahoo can pull it together. I really like that SE.

    @January 29, 2008 2:53 pm

    They have definitely seen better days, things are not exactly looking all that great for them at this point.

     
     
    @January 29, 2008 10:08 am

    I am pretty hesitant to buy into Google right now until the impact of their recent changes is seen.

    1 - Clickable area change on adsense units has made CTR drop and most likely Google’s revenue as well.

    2 - Elimination of the ability for domain tasters to use adsense for domains on names they have held for less than 5 days will cost Google many millions each month as domain tasters go out of business.

    Add those two things up and they could have a slowing effect on earnings growth in the future.

     
    @January 29, 2008 10:15 am
    Gary Says:

    Yahoo is in a bit of trouble. Seems like not too long ago they were flying pretty high.

     
    @January 29, 2008 10:59 am
    Tony Says:

    First of all, mang. Ju got to sell all dee tech stocks. Ju can’t own no tech now. Next ju got to by ju some banks. Good banks wit 5 and 5% dividends. Ju just sit on dem for dee next three years. If ju gotta own tech, den ju might as well own MSFT cause dats dee only one that’s reasonably valued. Dee rest of dem is too rico for me excepto for maybe GLW which I own now for five years and I goin to keep on ownin’. If ADBE comes down a lot more I may own dat as well someday. Ju crazy to be buyin Google at these levels unless ju want to wait another 15 years to double your money. And dont ju be buyin no energy dees days. AMZN = gamble less, YHOO = gamble way less (sadly).

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:00 am
    RacerX Says:

    My Guess:
    Yahoo gets hit again -Company needs a purpose again, being the 2nd best Google isn’t enough- Down 15% Dead Cat bounce to nearly even in 4wks.

    Amazon is a great Company - That is overvalued. Not their fault, but unless there is big upside surprise, the will take a little hit. If their is upside surprise they could rise 5-10%

    Google is another great, but overvalued company - They ae getting beat up over YouTube not being able to find a way to be profitable enough to cover the buyout price. Unless surprise upside, down 2-5%

    All guesses :)

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:02 am
    Adam Says:

    Shoe you jinxed them, amazon is down 2% so far today.

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:03 am

    Buying into tech, especially search engine driven tech, before an potential recession, brave man! If the recession takes hold and jobs start going down the tubes, so do both the advertising dollars and the affiliate commisions.

    Then again, buying low is the name of the game. I’m not convinced it’s fully low yet.

    My tip of the day, see what happens to UNTD on their Feb 4th yearly announcement. They tried to IPO classmates and it failed, they didn’t get bought out and the stock dropped from 17 to 10 in two weeks. They’re heavily into internet now as well.

    @January 29, 2008 11:08 am

    edit-typo. United Online reports feb 7th, not 4th.

     
     
    @January 29, 2008 11:05 am

    yahoo sucks and will probably go out of business soon enough. Amazon rocks and made me tons of money in affiliate marketing this past xmas. I love and hate google and only wish I was paying attention when they had their IPO =( I would be so rich right now if I had remembered

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:09 am

    I disagree - Yahoo! is getting lean and mean. They rank #1 online for a reason, Google it :)

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:16 am

    forget about yahoo, google and amazon. buy apple stocks

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:28 am

    just a quick question, if someone wants to cash out their stocks, how long would that process take?

     
    @January 29, 2008 11:40 am

    You can do it the same day. Just find a good broker that knows when to sell.

     
    @January 29, 2008 12:40 pm

    whats the best online stock trader? my dads with e-trade but says he is not happy with it

     
    @January 29, 2008 12:45 pm
    Paul Says:

    Have you heard of a possible Google take over at Yahoo?

     
    @January 29, 2008 1:12 pm
    Dan Says:

    Ok, first: Google taking over Yahoo? Yeah, that deal wouldn’t be considered competition hampering… It would NEVER go though!

    Also: With Adsense being 40% or so of Googles income and their recent changes in clickable area + messing with referral rates I think google will be a BOMB! They will disappoint in all areas and drop 10%-15%!

    @January 29, 2008 1:41 pm

    dude adsense is like 87% of googles income

    @January 29, 2008 4:06 pm

    Actually Adsense is only 40% of Google’s revenue… they make the majority of revenue from Google.com - which isn’t considered an Adsense publisher.

     
     
    @January 29, 2008 4:05 pm

    There is no reason for Google to buy Yahoo as the word on the street via CNBC is that Yahoo may begin utilizing Google as its search backbone because it would generate more revenue than their own search engine does.

     
     
    @January 29, 2008 1:29 pm

    I really dont think Yahoo is ready just yet to throw in the towel

    @January 29, 2008 3:04 pm

    I agree, even if they’re not exactly doing great at this point, it doesn’t mean that the ship is sinking :)

     
     
    @January 29, 2008 1:35 pm

    Google takin over Yahoo??? That’s just hilarious.

     
    @January 29, 2008 2:01 pm

    Yahoo! isn’t going anywhere. But then again I know nothing about stock either…still waiting until I have enough money to buy a substantial share of the market!

     
    @January 29, 2008 2:29 pm
    ibusiness Says:

    Yahoo - R.I.P - They had their chance..not aggressive enough to go out and grap market share.

    Amzn will doing ok..I remember thier stock was like $28 year ago..

    Goog is great buy now..wish have some money to buy goog six month call option..Should be close to $800 after they get wireless freq.

     
    @January 29, 2008 3:56 pm

    Nice numbers. If I make $28 dollar a day I would be very happy. That would be a nice 900$ a month.

     
    @January 29, 2008 3:57 pm
    Credits Says:

    whats the best online stock trader?

    Here is a small sample of online brokers.

    * Scottrade

    * Ameritrade

    * E Trade

    * Schwab

    * CyberTrader

    * Trend Trader

     
    @January 29, 2008 4:26 pm
    Jeremy Says:

    Amazon and Google are both long term winners that I wish I would have bought. I do have Ameritrade, and it’s been up-and-down. Yahoo…yeah, I wish I had that too!

     
    @January 29, 2008 4:57 pm
    Sam I Am Says:

    Looks like YHOO is down 11% after hours on a 23% slump in net profits. Your 5% could hold true if things bounce back up a little like they usually do when the numbers are fully digested.

     
    @January 29, 2008 6:14 pm
    Dan Says:

    Yahoo is going to continue down until they make a MAJOR move (split company up, merger, aquicision etc.)

    It amazes me how neglected and abused the Yahoo property is..

     

    [...] this week Shoemoney predicted that Yahoo’s stock price would decline after a negative earnings release. He predicted a 5% decline, which Yahoo surpased [...]

     
    @January 30, 2008 1:36 pm
    Adam Sharp Says:

    Agreed about Google, I think it’s a buy at these levels. I’m a little hesitant about buying right before earnings, but might put a few measly shares in my IRA. Seems really cheap here though, especially compared to Yahoo on a P/E basis. Nice call on yahoo earnings, pretty close. Seems like people wanted even more job cuts and don’t trust mgmt to turn it around.

    Did a post about last week if anyone’s interested. It’d be real interesting if Google gets a hold of that C block.

     
    @January 31, 2008 11:12 pm
    John Says:

    tough call on google — slowing ad sales on social media sites — stock is down nearly $40 after hours - will probably drop back into the 400’s to close the week

     
    @February 1, 2008 7:08 am
    jim Says:

    You might have a smile this morning over your YHOO stock depending on how much you have, MS made an unsolicted offer of $31/shr
    http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/base/business-80/1201869025292540.xml&storylist=business

     

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